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Kathryn Bigelow is back, baby — and she didn’t come quietly.
The Oscar-winning filmmaker, who rewrote history as the first woman to claim best director with “The Hurt Locker” (2009), has assembled what can only be described as a masterclass in tension. A ticking-clock thriller that exposes just how precariously our global order balances on nothing more than fragile trust between nations. When that trust shatters, it might explode right in our own backyard.
This is the reassertion of Bigelow’s cinematic authority.
“A House of Dynamite” weaves together an intricate tapestry of perspectives across three chapters, all compressed into a heart-stopping 18-minute window where U.S. government officials scramble to respond to an incoming nuclear missile from a foreign power. The ensemble cast reads like a who’s who of powerhouse talent: Idris Elba, Rebecca Ferguson, Gabriel Basso, Jared Harris, Tracy Letts, Anthony Ramos, Moses Ingram, Jonah Hauer-King, Greta Lee, Jason Clarke, Renée Elise Goldsberry and Kaitlyn Dever.
After its world premiere in Venice’s main competition, the critical reception has been electric, with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 88 on Metacritic.
Bigelow is a director who has already conquered this mountain before. Her filmography reads like a greatest hits collection: “Near Dark,” “Point Break,” “Strange Days.” But it was “The Hurt Locker” that truly cemented her legacy, capturing six Oscars, including best picture and director, making history as the first film directed by a woman to claim the top prize.
She followed that with the critically acclaimed “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012), which seemed destined for a second Oscar triumph. But the film became the political football of the season, targeted for its depiction of torture and used by disgraced mogul Harvey Weinstein in an aggressive smear campaign to kneecap its awards momentum.
Jessica Chastain, the film’s lead, reflected on that toxic climate in a 2022 interview on the Variety Awards Circuit Podcast, stating: “He-who-shall-not-be-named really changed awards season… We’re not trying to knock someone down because they’re competition. We have now moved to a much happier place.”
Despite five Oscar nominations, “Zero Dark Thirty” notably missed out on best director, a glaring snub that still baffles pundits. “Detroit” (2017), her follow-up, came and went with less fanfare, with solid reviews, but tepid box office and no Oscar traction.
Now, Bigelow returns with what many are calling her most visceral, focused work yet.
From the opening frame of this 112-minute anxiety marathon, Bigelow showcases exactly why she’s considered one of cinema’s premier visceral storytellers. Her technical team — cinematographer Barry Ackroyd, editor Kirk Baxter, composer Volker Bertelmann and the sound design team (nominees to be determined) — operates at such a high level that individual Oscar nominations seem inevitable.
This is where the real Oscar math gets interesting. Best picture winners rarely emerge from single-category dominance. They build coalitions across multiple branches of the Academy, something Netflix has proven to be proficient at executing.
As the season unfolds and with an upcoming bow at the New York Film Festival, “A House of Dynamite” will likely become a top-five contender. Not just for its craftsmanship, but for its urgency. It’s timely without being preachy, and chilling without being exploitative. Bigelow’s direction is muscular, kinetic, and sharp — and unlike “Zero Dark Thirty,” there’s no scandal on the horizon to derail her (at least for now). Unless Netflix fumbles the campaign, she’s heading back to the director lineup.
“A House of Dynamite” presents the visceral director at her absolute best. But can it garner more?
The production design, particularly the construction of the U.S. Situation Room, draws significant praise. The film’s primary setting, which is a modern-day U.S. Situation Room, may lack the traditional grandeur or fantasy appeal that Oscar voters in this category favor. The Academy likes space (“Gravity”), whimsy (“Barbie”), or sweeping detail (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”). But recent examples like “Conclave” (2024) or “Parasite” (2019) show a growing appreciation for sleek, contemporary realism.
Where campaign strategy becomes crucial is in the ensemble. Sprawling casts present both opportunities and challenges, especially with this many recognizable faces, not all carrying equal screen time. So how do you build a coherent campaign narrative?
History can provide the roadmap. Best picture contenders frequently elevate one ensemble member to individual recognition: “Magnolia” (1999) boosted Tom Cruise, “Traffic” (2000) delivered for Benicio del Toro, “Crash” (2005) pushed Matt Dillon and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (2020) championed Sacha Baron Cohen. Even “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008) and “Parasite” (2019) came tantalizingly close to landing Dev Patel and Song Kang-ho in their respective supporting actor races.
The strategic question is who emerges as the campaign’s standard-bearer? The smart money points to Idris Elba and Rebecca Ferguson.
Elba represents perhaps the most compelling narrative. An actor who delivered a tour-de-force performance in “Beasts of No Nation” (2015) earned a SAG Award, and then watched in disbelief as Oscar voters completely ignored him. Now, eight years later, he’s back as the President of the United States with a commanding screen presence.
The timing works in his favor, too. Elba appears prominently in the film’s final act, which allows for maximum impact. Think William Hurt’s scene-stealing work in “A History of Violence” (2005), where a relatively brief but pivotal appearance crystallized the entire film’s themes in one unforgettable sequence.
Ferguson faces different mathematics. Her impactful turn as Olivia Walker, the communication liaison with military leadership, anchors the film’s opening chapter. The challenge is that Oscar voters historically prefer actors who build momentum throughout a film rather than peak early. Still, there are a few exceptions: Mahershala Ali’s luminous work in the first act of “Moonlight” (2016) won an Oscar while Vanessa Redgrave’s early dominance in “Howards End” (1992) still garnered Academy recognition.
For both actors, this represents a career-defining opportunity. Neither has received an Oscar nomination despite years of acclaimed work. Career achievement narratives carry significant weight with Academy voters.
Noah Oppenheim, the former NBC News president turned screenwriter, has crafted what is undoubtedly his strongest work to date. His previous credits — “The Maze Runner,” “Allegiant,” “Jackie” — showed promise but lacked the sustained excellence on display in Bigelow’s film.
Oppenheim’s journalism background was vitally crucial as he understands how information flows through government channels, how crisis communication actually functions and how split-second decisions cascade into historical consequences. That foundation elevates the screenplay beyond typical thriller mechanics into something approaching documentary realism. Watch out for him in the original screenplay race, as it often rewards this kind of expertise-driven storytelling.
“A House of Dynamite” is Netflix’s most serious best picture contender this year. The streamer has been chasing that elusive top prize for years, coming close with “Roma” (2018) and “The Power of the Dog” (2021).
But streaming platforms have fundamentally changed the awards landscape. The traditional theatrical rollout, the grassroots campaigning and the industry schmoozing have all evolved. Netflix’s advantage lies in its ability to ensure maximum Academy voter exposure. Every voting member can watch this film in optimal conditions, multiple times, without the barriers of limited theatrical releases or screener delays.
The subject matter also works in the film’s favor. Political thrillers tend to resonate with Oscar voters who appreciate both craftsmanship and contemporary relevance. Recent years have seen nominees like “Vice” and “The Post,” even going far back to “All the President’s Men,” — they can all translate political urgency into Oscar recognition.
Step back from the individual categories and campaign strategies, and “A House of Dynamite” reveals itself as something more significant. It’s a mirror held up to our current geopolitical moment. In an era of increasing global tensions, nuclear proliferation concerns and diplomatic breakdowns, Bigelow crafts what I can only consider to be perhaps the most terrifying horror movie of the year.
That cultural relevance factor cannot be understated in Oscar campaigns. Voters consistently reward films that capture zeitgeist moments while maintaining artistic integrity. “Spotlight” exposed institutional corruption, “Parasite” dissected class inequality and “Nomadland” explored economic displacement. “A House of Dynamite” interrogates our collective vulnerability in an increasingly unstable world.
The question facing voters won’t be “Is this a good film?” but “Is this the film our moment requires?”
“A House of Dynamite” is the film to watch. Whether voters lean into the message or back away from its mirror-to-reality nature could determine its fate. But one thing is clear: Bigelow reminds us that she still knows exactly where the pressure points are, and she’s not afraid to press down.
The first official charts for best director are out today. The overall Oscar predictions updates are below.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Anemone” (Focus Features)
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia” (Focus Features) ***
Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Supporting Actor
Idris Elba, “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features) ***
Original Screenplay
“Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell and Bradley Cooper
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Noah Oppenheim
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features) — Craig Brewer
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story” (Netflix) — Rian Johnson
Casting
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Jennifer Venditti
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Nina Gold
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story” (Netflix) — Bret Howe and Mary Vernieu
Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Production Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Cinematography
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Film Editing
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) ***
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24) ***
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“How to Train Your Dragon” (Universal Pictures)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Tron: Ares” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Original Score
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Jerskin Fendrix
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Volker Bertelmann
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
Original Song
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
TBA Elphaba Song from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
TBA Glinda Song from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Documentary Feature
“Cover Up” (U.S. Acquisition TBD)
“The Eyes of Ghana” (U.S. Acquisition TBD)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
“Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk” (U.S. Distribution TBD)
International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon) ***
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Watermelon Pictures)
Top 4 projected Oscar leaders (films): “Hamnet” (11); “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” (10); “Wicked: For Good” (9); “Bugonia” and “A House of Dynamite” (8)
Top 5 projected Oscar leaders (studios): Focus Features (23); Warner Bros. (22); Netflix (21); Neon (12); Universal Pictures (10)
