Aiming precision in monsoon forecasting, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is planning to develop "dynamic" prediction models, supplementing the existing statistics-based systems.
The programme to be given effect from next year will involve various meteorological institutes in the country that will work on the proposed 'National Mission on Monsoon' being
undertaken at the instance of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
"Use of reliable dynamic models will improve accuracy in weather and monsoon predictions", said Ajit Tyagi, Director General, Meteorology, IMD, at the just-concluded session of
South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SACOF) here.
The IMD officials, who participated in the deliberations, said various international dynamic prediction models would be studied to devise a five year monsoon forecast plan for India.
These dynamic models--- models that put greater accent on physics of atmospheric flow and processes--- for forecasting monsoon will function in addition to the statistics-based ones
that are being employed at present.
The statistical models are based on correlation of various global and regional parameters.
At present, long range forecasting of the monsoon is based on statistical models that are also used for seasonal forecast.
"The dynamic models are more objective and the initial values used in the equations of these models are current weather observations", according to A B Mazumdar, Deputy Director General Meteorology, IMD, Pune.Detailing the proposed 'Monsoon Mission', Tyagi said, "The programme will be initiated from next year and leading meteorological institutions such as Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and IMD will participate in it."
Precision in the forecasting of South-West monsoon assumes a particular significance for the entire South Asia for its socio-economic impact on the region.
The IMD along with IITM will also team up with Switzerland-based World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) to assess the performance of South West monsoon in seven South Asian countries.
The SACOF member countries besides India, include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Maldives.
The SACOF initiative is supported by WMO through its climate information and prediction services.
The Southwest monsoon plays a very crucial role in the entire socio-economic fabric of South Asia, critically affecting all walks of life. The Southwest monsoon (June-September) rainfall accounts for 75-90 per cent of the annual rainfall of the most of the countries of the region.
Several studies highlight the critical dependence of crop production on monsoon rainfall. The summer monsoon rainfall is also important for hydroelectric power generation and meeting drinking water requirements.