S&P Global Ratings has cautioned that Ghana’s sovereign credit rating could come under pressure over the next 12 to 18 months if fiscal reform momentum weakens or external conditions deteriorate.

In its latest assessment, the agency said a slowdown in fiscal consolidation, resulting in wider deficits or higher debt servicing costs, could weaken the government’s capacity to refinance maturing obligations.

“It could lower our rating on Ghana over the next 12–18 months if fiscal reform momentum stalled, materially raising fiscal deficits or debt service costs, while straining the government’s ability to refinance maturing debt as it comes due,” S&P stated.

The agency also flagged risks from the external sector, warning that adverse shifts such as weaker terms of trade or declining export volumes could further weigh on the country’s credit profile.

Additionally, S&P pointed to uncertainties surrounding Ghana’s ongoing debt restructuring process, particularly the risk of delays arising from disagreements among creditors under the G20 Common Framework.

“Although not our base case, we could also consider a negative rating action if the remaining part of debt restructuring stalls,” it added, citing potential disputes over comparability of treatment among creditor groups.

However, S&P noted that upside risks remain if fiscal discipline is sustained and external buffers continue to improve.

“It could raise the rating in the next 12–18 months if Ghana maintained low fiscal deficits, reducing debt service costs and strengthening its access to foreign financing, while its external position continued to strengthen, including via the accumulation of additional foreign currency reserves,” the agency said.

Despite these risks, S&P affirmed Ghana’s long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at ‘B-/B’, with a stable outlook, as the country nears completion of its debt restructuring programme.

According to the agency, the stable outlook reflects a balance between improving fiscal and external indicators, supported by ongoing reforms, and persistent vulnerabilities, including high debt service costs, exposure to commodity price fluctuations, and implementation risks.

Ghana has made significant progress in its restructuring process following the 2022 default, completing domestic debt restructuring in 2023 and restructuring $13.1 billion in Eurobonds in October 2024. The government has now secured agreements or completed restructuring on about 97 percent of the targeted debt.

S&P noted that recent progress in negotiations with key creditors, including the African Export-Import Bank and holders of Saderea commercial notes, has helped advance the process after earlier delays.

The ratings affirmation also comes against the backdrop of improving external sector performance, supported largely by strong gold prices. Ghana recorded a current account surplus of $9.35 billion, equivalent to 8.1 percent of GDP in 2025, while gross international reserves rose to a record $14.5 billion.

Overall, the assessment underscores the delicate balance between Ghana’s ongoing macroeconomic recovery and the risks that could shape its credit outlook in the near term.