The Global Business Complexity Index (GBCI) studies over 250 indicators of complexity in 79 jurisdictions that represent 94% of the world's GDP. The complexity that the report measures is a dead-weight burden on business that stifles local innovation and deters foreign direct investment with no obvious societal benefit. The report has consistently shown that countries in Southern Europe and Latin America are the most complex for doing business and that continues to be true in 2025. At the other end of the scale, the least complex places to do business tend to be in Northern Europe and several of the offshore investment hubs. These all compete for investment on the basis of the ease of doing business there and have adopted less onerous requirements, as well as more efficient ways for firms to manage them.

The report notes that complexity is relatively straightforward to navigate, at least for larger multinationals able to absorb the cost of complying with local rules. What is much harder to deal with is uncertainty. US-led sanctions, lockdowns in China and the Suez blockage had already begun a shift in globalisation towards more diversified supply chains, with companies seeking to reduce their reliance on single countries for sourcing, building or selling their products. A part of that solution noted in last year's report was the rise of connector economies like Mexico, Philippines and Vietnam, bridging trade between China and the US in the so-called 'China plus one' strategy. That strategy has now fallen foul of US tariffs, set to reflect a country's trade surplus in goods with the US and so punishing countries with connector status.

Even if tariffs abate, their launch and rapid shifts point to an underlying risk for companies trading from countries with a high US trade surplus. The report notes a drop in confidence in stability, with the majority of jurisdictions (55%) reporting prioritisation of trade corridor diversity. It identifies a number of countries that might now emerge as the new connectors — with low levels of complexity pointing to business-friendly rules, a low US trade surplus pointing to less likely retaliatory action, a reasonable size and sophistication of economy to support a variety of activity at scale and absorb investment without tipping heavily into US trade surplus, and a multipolar stance that should allow them to trade across different blocs. Those countries include the UK and the Netherlands in Europe, Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East and Australia and Hong Kong in Asia Pacific.

The report finally notes that at a time of great uncertainty for global trade — and in particular, trade with the US — governments should focus on making their countries less complex places to do business whilst seeking trade agreements across different blocs to encourage cross-investment. It also notes that companies will need to further diversify their supply chains. That will add to their internal complexity and costs. At the same time, companies can help themselves by simplifying their arrangements for managing those supply chains, with many having excessive numbers of legal entities for their geographic scope along with large numbers of suppliers to help manage them.

TMF Group's CEO Mark Weil, said:

"The real challenge for businesses today isn't complexity, it's uncertainty. With rising trade tensions, a shifting geopolitical landscape and economic unpredictability, companies are forced to make decisions in an environment that can change overnight. Tariffs are just the latest signal of the risks of supply chain concentration. Diversification is a necessity in this context, although it comes with a cost. The good news is that businesses can offset some of the complexities of diversification by reducing their own internal intricacies. Our benchmarking reveals stark differences in structural complexity among similar firms. We see an opportunity here: by simplifying their structures and support models — for example, by having fewer legal entities and a few trusted global partners — businesses can gain flexibility. Done right, this can improve efficiency and agility as firms navigate an uncertain world."