Ghana’s rice imports are projected to hit one million metric tons in 2025/26, covering more than half of national demand, despite rising domestic output.

This is according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Grain and Feed Annual 2025 Report.

The USDA forecasts milled rice production at 900,000 metric tons, an 18 percent increase from the previous year “due to favorable weather and improved farmer participation.”

However, the optimism is tempered by weather risks, with the Ghana Meteorological Agency predicting “normal-to-below-normal rainfall and longer dry spells in 2025,” raising concerns over crop sustainability.

Consumption is expected to reach 1.80 million MT, up from 1.75 million MT, driven by population growth and changing diets.

The report noted: “Ghana’s urban population prefers fragrant long-grain rice, which is largely imported.”

On prices, the USDA observed that between March 2024 and January 2025, “the average price of a 100kg bag of rice increased from GH¢200 to GH¢650, a 225 percent jump.”

Although prices eased to GH¢400 by March 2025, they remained twice as high as a year earlier.

Import pricing dynamics also favor foreign suppliers. “As of early 2025, a 25kg bag of Thai fragrant rice averaged GH¢690, Vietnamese rice sold at GH¢490, while local long-grain rice was priced at GH¢535,” the report stated.

With 70 percent of rice sold in Ghana imported — largely from Vietnam, India, and Thailand — local producers struggle to compete on cost and quality.

The USDA further warned that structural challenges, including “poor irrigation, low mechanization, and weak processing capacity,” continue to undermine local rice competitiveness.

It cautioned: “Unless these bottlenecks are addressed, Ghana will remain import-dependent, leaving consumers vulnerable to global price shocks and exchange rate pressures.”

Rice is now Ghana’s second most important cereal after maize, with per capita consumption at 51kg.

While government has tried to promote local rice through initiatives like the National School Feeding Scheme, the USDA concludes that “quality concerns, irregular supply, and distribution challenges continue to undermine local rice competitiveness.”