info@businessghana.com
Africa could face a season of punishing heat, drought, flooding and disrupted rainfall as an unusually powerful El Niño gathers strength in the Pacific Ocean.
The latest outlook from the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that El Niño is strengthening and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27. It places the probability of an event exceeding the strength of any El Niño recorded since 1950 at 69% between October and December.
For Africa, however, the threat will not take a single form. Southern Africa is likely to face a heightened risk of drought and extreme heat, while parts of East Africa could experience excessive rainfall and flooding.
Dr Henno Havenga, senior lecturer in climatology at the North-West University’s (NWU’s) School of Geo- and Spatial Sciences, says the term “super El Niño” is widely used but is not a formal scientific classification.
“It describes an exceptionally strong El Niño event,” he says. “El Niño develops when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm and the atmospheric circulation above it changes. These changes can influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific through what we call teleconnections.”
The strength of the developing event does not mean that every country or region will experience disaster. El Niño shifts the odds, but it does not dictate the weather from one district to the next.
“A very strong El Niño does not guarantee extreme conditions everywhere,” says Havenga. “Weather variability still plays a major role. It can, however, increase the likelihood or severity of some of the conditions normally associated with El Niño.”
For much of Southern Africa, those conditions include reduced rainfall, drought and unusually high temperatures. Heat compounds the damage because it increases evaporation and the amount of water required by crops, livestock and people at precisely the time when supplies may be declining.
The picture is different in parts of East Africa, where El Niño can bring above-normal rainfall. There, the danger may come from flooded settlements, damaged roads and bridges, contaminated water supplies and the displacement of communities.
Even within the same country, rainfall may arrive too late, fall in the wrong places or come in short, destructive bursts rather than the well-timed and evenly distributed rain needed by crops.
“The timing, distribution and intensity of rainfall can either amplify or offset the typical El Niño signal at a local level,” Havenga says.
A threat to fields, taps and household budgets
Agriculture is among the most exposed sectors, but the consequences will extend far beyond the farm gate. Poor harvests can reduce food availability, weaken rural incomes and push prices higher.
International trade may help countries compensate for local crop failures, but imports do not provide complete protection. Countries remain vulnerable to global commodity prices, exchange-rate movements, transport costs and disruptions to supply chains.
The effects are especially severe for small-scale and subsistence farmers.
“A commercial producer may have access to insurance, financing, irrigation or alternative markets,” says Havenga. “A small-scale or subsistence farmer may lose both the food needed by the household and the produce normally sold to generate an income.”
The same drought can therefore become both a food crisis and an income crisis. Communities that depend heavily on local harvests and village markets may be hit long before the full economic impact becomes visible in national statistics.
Water security is an equally urgent concern. Hot, dry weather increases demand while reducing the water available in rivers, dams and boreholes. Havenga says local governments cannot afford to lose treated water through leaking and poorly maintained infrastructure during such a period.
“Reducing leaks and unnecessary losses from existing water infrastructure is one of the most practical interventions available to us. At the same time, all users should be encouraged to use water sparingly as a general rule.”
Consequences far beyond agriculture
An intense El Niño could place health services, energy systems and ecosystems under strain.
Extreme heat poses a particular danger to outdoor workers, older people, children and those living with chronic illnesses. Drought may affect drinking-water quality, sanitation and nutrition, while floods can contaminate water sources and increase the risk of disease.
Hydropower-dependent countries could face reduced electricity generation if rainfall declines and reservoir levels fall. At the same time, higher temperatures may drive up demand for cooling.
Natural systems will not escape the pressure. Drought can reduce vegetation growth, shrink wetlands and rivers, increase the likelihood of wildfires and leave wildlife competing for dwindling supplies of water and food.
“We cannot assume that every ecosystem will simply return to its previous state after a severe drought,” Havenga says. “However, reducing human pressures, including excessive water abstraction, land degradation and unnecessary habitat disturbance, can improve the ability of ecosystems to withstand and recover from the event.”
As is often the case during climate-related disasters, poorer communities are likely to be affected first and take the longest to recover. They generally have fewer savings, less secure access to food and water, and fewer options when crops fail, livestock die or prices rise.
The warning has arrived
Africa is not powerless in the face of El Niño. Forecasting has improved substantially, and governments can draw on their experience of previous droughts and floods. The danger lies in failing to act before the consequences become unavoidable.
Havenga says farmers should review their planting plans, cultivar choices, water use, production targets and input expenditure in light of the increased risk. Expanding production on the assumption that good rains will arrive could leave already vulnerable producers dangerously exposed.
Governments and municipalities should repair water infrastructure, prepare food-security programmes and ensure that disaster-response systems can be activated quickly. Financial assistance, agricultural support and drought-relief mechanisms should be designed before farmers and communities are already in distress.
“Drought is a slow-onset hazard,” Havenga says. “At first, we might not feel its effects, but it develops gradually, and that slow progression can catch us off guard.”
“The advantage we have is that advance warning systems have allowed us to talk about this event since May,” says Havenga. “We should use that warning to reduce our exposure and prepare for the possibility of a difficult season, rather than waiting until the drought is already established.”
