The poll revealed that Mr Mahama leads with 54.3 per cent followed by Dr Bawumia, 34.9 per cent; the leader and founder of Movement for Change (M4C), Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen, has 7.5 per cent, while the leader of the New Force Movement (NFM), Nana Kwame Bediako, has 2.3 per cent and others, one per cent. 

Twist

The poll, which was released yesterday, April 8, 2024, and made available to the Daily Graphic using weighted polling data, said among first-time voters, Mr Mahama led Dr Bawumia with 52 per cent as against 33 per cent and among non-first-time voters, Mr Mahama led Dr Bawumia with 55 per cent to 35 per cent.

“In a twist at the regional level, Mr Mahama now leads in the North East Region with 58 per cent; Dr Bawumia, 26 per cent and Mr Kyerematen, 11 per cent,” it said. The poll indicated that in the turnaround for Dr Bawumia in the Ashanti Region, he had now regained the lead with 54 per cent; Mr Mahama, 31 per cent; Mr Kyerematen, 12 per cent, and Nana Kwame Bediako, 2 per cent.

Dr Bawumia also made a significant recovery in the Central Region, a critical and must win region for the NPP in the 2024 election. However, he still trailed Mr Mahama 45 per cent to 51 per cent.

Methodology and approach

A sample size of 6,128 voters were interviewed of which 5,928 responded to questions on who they intended to vote for in the December 2024 elections with a confidence level of 99 per cent and a margin of error of 1.66 per cent.

The Electoral Commission’s 2023 voters register was used as a sample frame while 30 per cent of constituencies from each region was randomly selected and allocated the regional quota based on total voters in each of the selected constituencies.

The field interviews were conducted between March 22 to March 30, 2024.

 

Regional breakdown

The poll also showed a disturbing outlook for the ruling government as the opposition leader extended his lead in the three critical swing regions of the Greater Accra, Central and Western regions.

It said although Mr Mahama lost grounds in the Central Region, his dominance in the Greater Accra and Western regions now stood at 66 per cent and Dr Bawumia, 28 per cent; Mr Kyerematen five per cent and Nana Bediako, one per cent.

It also showed Dr Bawumia making significant gains in the Oti Region and now at 42 per cent, Mr Mahama 49 per cent, Mr Kyerematen, four per cent and Nana Bediako, two per cent.

In the Volta Region, Mr Mahama leads with 74 per cent while Dr Bawumia attracted 12 per cent. The poll from the region showed Mr Kyerematen making strong gains as he now attracts 10 per cent of the votes and Nana Bediako, two per cent.

The poll further showed that Mr Mahama was leading in 55 out of the 82 constituencies polled while Dr Bawumia led in 26 and the two are tied in one constituency. 

Change of mind

The poll shows that 74 per cent of voters are unlikely to change their mind on who they intended to vote for, while 12 per cent are likely to change their mind, with a further 14 per cent saying they were neutral about it.

It said while 12 per cent of NPP voters said they were likely to change their mind, only nine per cent of NDC voters said they were likely to change their mind, with 12 per cent of floating voters saying they were likely to change their mind.

“Seventy-seven per cent of NPP voters are unlikely to change their mind, while 79 per cent of NDC voters say they are unlikely to change their mind, and 72 per cent for floating voters,” it said.

Campaign promises  

On the issue of which campaign promises will influence voters in the December election, 48 per cent said 24 Hr Economy; Digitalisation, 29 per cent; Great Transformational Plan (GTP) 6 per cent, while 17 per cent said they would not be influenced by any of the slogans.

“When voters were asked the extent to which they agree or disagree that Dr Mahamudu Bawumia is partly to be blamed for the economic crisis, 60 per cent of voters agreed compared to 34 per cent who disagreed and 6 per cent who did not have an opinion.