The African Energy Chamber (AEC) (https://EnergyChamber.org/) – the voice of the African energy sector – will launch its latest outlook, offering strategic insight into the trends, opportunities and challenges of the African energy sector, at African Energy Week: Invest in African Energies on 30 September. Written in collaboration with data and analytics firm S&P Global Commodity Insights, the State of African Energy 2026 Outlook report offers a comprehensive view of various segments of the African energy value chain, from upstream market trends to mid- and downstream to gas and LNG to power, renewables and energy transition. At a time when African energy demand is expected to rise fourfold and energy investments will reach $54 billion by 2030, the outlook serves as a guide for financiers and project developers.

A key highlight of the 2026 outlook is a focus on Africa’s Upstream Outlook, with insights shared into exploration and production (E&P) trends, upcoming drilling campaigns and the emergence of new petroleum provinces in Africa. The outlook shows that Africa’s oil and gas production is expected to reach 11.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2026, with Nigeria at the forefront in terms of remaining recoverable resources. Global E&P capital expenditure is set to reach $504 billion by 2026, with Africa contributing around $41 billion, driven largely by expenditure in offshore prospects in Mozambique, Angola and Nigeria. As explorers look to make needle moving discoveries, the report shows that Africa’s abundance of immature and frontier basins are increasingly attracting exploration drilling with potentially game-changing high impact wells planned in countries such as South Africa, Namibia and Ivory Coast.

In the mid- and downstream sectors, Africa’s population and economy are expected to grow at a fast pace, driving demand for refined products. Africa’s refined product demand is projected to rise from ~4 million bpd in 2024 to over 6 million bpd by 2050, representing a 50% increase. Significant oil trading activity now takes place around Africa, mostly to sell crude oil and purchase/import refined products. However, the report shows that there is considerable opportunity to improve the efficiency of this and increase the value to Africa. More than $20 billion in investment is required in downstream infrastructure by 2050 to support the increasing need for refined product imports and distribution.

A section on Africa’s gas and LNG outlook provides an in-depth analysis of the market. According to the report, Africa’s gas potential is significant, buoyed by a raft of exploration successes in existing production hubs and frontiers with Africa producing more than 300 billion cubic meters of natural gas and accounting for 8.5% of global LNG supply (34.7 million tons) in 2024. The report outlines new LNG projects, including those in Angola, Senegal and Mauritania, while potential roadblocks to gas monetization and industrialization. Insights also cover domestic demand, the rise in FLNG solutions and gas flaring, thereby supporting decision-making by potential investors. 

Beyond oil and gas, the report offers insights into Africa’s power and renewables sectors, showing that in 2025, the continent’s power demand is projected to increase from an estimated 1,028 TWh to 2,291 TWh by 2050. The report shows that the continent is witnessing a significant shift towards renewable energy sources, with ~25 GW of capacity procured by governments as of 2024. Additionally, ~11 GW has been secured through private offtake agreements. Africa’s commitment to renewable energy sources presents significant opportunities for investment and innovation. Over 2020-2025, the continent invested $34 billion in clean power technologies, with 52% allocated to solar energy and 25% to onshore wind. Natural gas is projected to account for 45% of total power generation by 2050.

Meanwhile, insights into Africa’s energy transition shows emerging implications for the continent. By 2060, Africa’s population is projected to rise to 28% of the global total, yet its share of energy-related emissions is expected to remain modest at just 9%, reflecting both the continent’s low per capita energy use and the opportunity to pursue a low-carbon development pathway. As such, the report shows the impact of emissions regulations, opportunities in carbon trade and the value of an integrated approach to energy development in Africa. Through these insights, the AEC’s State of African Energy 2026 Outlook represents a vital tool for investors.

“2025 has been a year of unprecedented challenges, and the trials and tribulations have made the AEC’s work more important now than ever. We are committed to helping Africa’s energy stakeholders navigate a complex and ever-changing global energy landscape. We will continue our mission to support the dynamic private sector and unlock the continent’s remarkable energy potential,” states NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the AEC.