Ghana’s crude oil production has extended its downward trajectory for a sixth consecutive year, underscoring deepening structural and operational challenges within the country’s upstream petroleum sector.

Latest data from the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) shows total output declined to 37.3 million barrels in 2025, significantly below the 71.4 million barrels peak recorded in 2019.

Ageing fields drag overall output

Production continues to be anchored on three offshore fields – Jubilee, Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN), and Sankofa Gye Nyame (SGN) – but all three recorded declines in crude output in 2025.

Jubilee remained the largest contributor with 22.2 million barrels, followed by SGN at 9.26 million barrels and TEN at 5.83 million barrels.

Despite SGN showing relative operational stability and improved performance toward the end of the year, it has not been sufficient to offset declines in the more dominant Jubilee and TEN fields.

A key driver of the sustained production drop is the natural maturation of Ghana’s oil fields. Jubilee and TEN, which have been in operation for over a decade, are experiencing reservoir depletion, leading to lower pressure and reduced output over time.

This is evident in TEN’s declining daily averages toward the end of 2025 and Jubilee’s vulnerability to production disruptions, including shutdowns that impacted output earlier in the year.

Operational setbacks

Operational and technical constraints have also weighed on production. Intermittent shutdowns, such as the 13-day interruption at Jubilee, contributed to sharp monthly declines, while efficiency challenges persist across the fields.

In the case of TEN, high gas reinjection levels – reportedly as high as 81 percent – point to limited gas offtake capacity and suboptimal reservoir management. This not only constrains oil recovery but also signals broader infrastructure and utilization gaps within the gas value chain.

Investment slowdown limits production recovery

Another critical factor is the slowdown in upstream investment. Limited capital inflows into new drilling and field development have restricted Ghana’s ability to offset natural decline with fresh production.

Exploration activity in new basins has also remained subdued, leaving the country heavily reliant on ageing assets. As a result, actual output in 2025 reached only about 80 percent of the benchmark target of 46.35 million barrels.

Revenue impact exposes sector vulnerability

The production downturn has had direct fiscal implications. Petroleum receipts fell sharply by over 43 percent, dropping from $1.3 billion in 2024 to $770 million in 2025 driven largely by a drop in crude lifting revenues and the absence of inflows from the TEN Field.

Revenue concentration in just Jubilee and SGN further highlights the vulnerability of Ghana’s petroleum revenue base to field-specific disruptions.

Path to recovery hinges on reforms and fresh capital

While recent efforts to unlock up to $2 billion in investment from Jubilee and TEN partners through new drilling programmes signal a potential turnaround, the effectiveness of these interventions will depend on timely execution and broader reforms.

Strengthening the fiscal and regulatory framework, improving gas utilization infrastructure, and extending the productive life of existing fields remain central to reversing the decline.

In the near term, Ghana’s oil output is likely to remain under pressure as structural constraints persist. Without sustained investment and enhanced operational efficiency, the country risks continued erosion of both production volumes and petroleum revenues, with implications for fiscal stability and energy sector growth.