Finance and tax analyst, Nelson Cudjoe Kuagbedzi has cautioned that Ghana’s inflation outlook for 2026, though currently aligned with policy targets, remains vulnerable to mounting global pressures particularly from rising fuel costs.

“This is not far-fetched because of the vulnerabilities of emerging markets to global shocks and disruptions,” he said, underscoring the country’s exposure to external economic forces.

Ghana’s 2026 budget projects end-year inflation at around 8%, within the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target band of 8% ± 2%. However, Kuagbedzi warns that this outlook could quickly shift if global supply chain disruptions persist.

His concerns reflect broader global trends. A recent report by the World Bank projects inflation in emerging economies to rise to 5.1% in 2026 amid persistent global uncertainties and supply-side constraints.

According to him, rising fuel prices driven by geopolitical tensions are a key risk to price stability. While recent government interventions have offered temporary relief at the pumps, he stressed that such measures may not hold if external conditions worsen.

“Even though the government has given us four weeks’ relief in terms of price reduction, to the extent that the geopolitical tension continues to wage on, we expect prices to shoot up at the pump and that will engender some level of inflationary pressures,” he cautioned.

Kuagbedzi emphasized that managing these risks will require strong coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities. He called on the Bank of Ghana to maintain a tight monetary policy stance, while urging government to pursue disciplined fiscal management.

He noted that keeping inflation within single digits will depend not only on domestic policy discipline but also on how global economic tensions evolve in the months ahead.