Since the start of March, parts of Nairobi, Nyakach and surrounding regions have been hit by heavy rainfall that destroyed homes, swept away crops and forced families to flee low-lying areas, raising concerns about the region’s vulnerability to recurring climate-related disasters. The latest crisis comes as East Africa continues to face alternating periods of drought and intense rainfall; a pattern experts say is becoming more frequent.

Prof. Dewald van Niekerk, head of the African Centre for Disaster Studies at the North-West University (NWU), said current scientific evidence suggests that climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme rainfall events across the continent.

“From a climate science perspective, it is reasonable to say that climate change is loading the dice toward heavier rainfall, more intense downpours and therefore greater flash-flood risk in Kenya and across East Africa,” he said. “The signal is not simply more rain or less rain, but greater instability, more extremes and rainfall arriving in damaging bursts.”

He said recent international climate assessments indicate that the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to increase across most parts of Africa as global temperatures rise.

While climate change is seen as a major driver, Prof. van Niekerk said disasters of this scale are often the result of a combination of environmental and human factors.

“The disaster outcome is co-produced by climate pressures, development choices and governance gaps,” he said, noting that rapid urban growth, settlement in flood-prone areas and weak infrastructure often turn heavy rain into a humanitarian crisis.

Climate justice

The floods have also revived debate about climate justice, as African countries face severe losses despite contributing only a small share of global greenhouse-gas emissions.

Prof. van Niekerk said the situation highlights the unequal burden carried by developing countries.

“Africa contributes only a small portion of global emissions, yet it experiences disproportionate losses from climate extremes,” he said. “Countries that benefited most from carbon-intensive industrialisation carry a responsibility to support nations such as Kenya through adaptation finance, disaster support and faster emission reductions.”

He added that international support should not be treated as charity but as part of global commitments under climate agreements, including funding for early-warning systems, resilient infrastructure and emergency response mechanisms.

The recurring floods in Kenya have also raised questions about long-term disaster planning, as seasonal flooding continues to affect the same communities each year.

According to Prof. van Niekerk, governments should move away from treating floods as unexpected emergencies and instead plan for them as predictable risks.

“The main lesson is that seasonal flooding should not be treated as an exceptional disaster when it is in fact a recurring risk pattern,” he said. “Governments need anticipatory risk governance that includes better land-use planning, stronger drainage systems, early-warning networks and relocation plans for communities living in high-risk areas.”

He said effective disaster management requires long-term investment in infrastructure, social protection and environmental management, rather than rebuilding after each crisis.

With heavy seasonal rains expected to continue across parts of East Africa, experts warn that without stronger climate adaptation and disaster-preparedness measures, similar emergencies are likely to occur more often, placing growing pressure on governments and humanitarian agencies.