When Roma were pitted against Chelsea and Atletico Madrid in the group stage of the Champions League, you would have struggled to find a Romanisti happy with the draw or confident of getting to the round of 16. Antonio Conte's Premier League champions looked in fine fettle having just beaten rivals Tottenham at Wembley while Atleti have been one of Europe's preeminent sides in the past few seasons, reaching two finals and one semi only to be thwarted each time by local rivals Real.
The Europa League looked a distinct possibility, but now, unbeaten and second place in Group C with leaders Chelsea arriving in the Eternal City, Roma have the chance to put one foot in the knockout stages. To do so they'll need to transfer some of their domestic defensive solidity to the European stage.
In 10 Serie A games Roma have conceded just five goals, not just the fewest in the league but seven less than at the same point last season. In the top five leagues only Barcelona (three) and Manchester United (four) have conceded less, while only United have kept more clean sheets than Roma, eight to the Giallorossi's seven. However, Roma have a game in hand at Sampdoria, who after walloping a decent Chievo side 4-1 at the weekend now have the best goals-for column of any team outside the top three and have scored more (22) than the other two teams above them -- Inter and Roma. So while Roma's record isn't exactly comparable to the rest of the league it's still a huge improvement on recent years.
In Europe, meanwhile, they've looked more fragile. The three goals conceded at Chelsea last time out, all of which could be traced back to individual errors, cost Eusebio Di Francesco's team a deserved three points and first place in the group, while Roma were rickety in the second half at Qarabag -- where their 2-1 win nevertheless looks hugely important following Atleti's 1-1 draw there on matchday three -- and extremely lucky to escape with a goalless draw against Atleti on matchday one.
A win would keep the gap between Roma, who are two points behind Chelsea on five points, and Atletico at three, assuming that Diego Simeone's team -- who are still unbeaten in La Liga but have disappointed in Europe -- don't slip up again against Qarabag at the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano. Roma take on Los Colchoneros in Madrid next but even if they were to beat Chelsea and then lose to the Spaniards in three weeks' time they would still be level on points and have Qarabag at home on the final day.
Atleti meanwhile would then be at Stamford Bridge taking on a Chelsea team that won't have assured themselves qualification -- even if they beat Qarabag in Baku -- but have the better of the two teams' head-to-head record and also have a huge goal-differential advantage having scored 10 more goals. A draw or even a defeat for Roma against Chelsea still leaves Roma ahead of Atleti going into the final two fixtures but makes the trip to Madrid much more complicated.
Di Francesco was understandably coy about his starting lineup but he will make several changes from the team that beat Bologna 1-0 on Saturday night. First of all, Aleksandar Kolarov, who has so impressed since returning to Rome, will return at left-back, as Bruno Peres -- who played on the left at the weekend -- is out thanks to the latest in a long line of muscle injuries afflicting the club. Kostas Manolas should be fit to return to the central defence alongside Federico Fazio, fresh from signing a contract extension, who has impressed since replacing the Greek against Napoli two weeks ago and been key in the subsequent three straight clean sheets in the league (admittedly against middling and outright poor opposition).
Radja Nainggolan will also be back, although it's not clear as to whether Di Francesco will start him in midfield, leaving one of either Kevin Strootman or Lorenzo Pellegrini (who has been in excellent form) on the bench, or to the right of Edin Dzeko, as he did at Torino. That move would be similar to the trick Di Francesco pulled in playing Gerson at right wing at Stamford Bridge, which helped with the extremely high pressing game that so startled Chelsea's back three. Either way Diego Perotti, who alongside Kolarov caused Chelsea all sorts of problems, will start on the left.
Chelsea boss Antonio Conte is crossing his fingers about N'Golo Kante's fitness and after the pummeling his team's midfield took at the Bridge he must surely be thinking about throwing the Frenchman in to protect top spot in the group. The Frenchman's presence would make it a lot less easy for Roma to dominate the centre of the park as they did last time out. With Kante back and attacking danger men Eden Hazard and Alvaro Morata creeping to top form, now is the time for Roma's dogged backline to make it count in Europe.