The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended a long and bitter war in Sudan in 2005, has reached a "critical juncture" marked by daunting challenges including political uncertainty and lack of mutual trust, UN Special Representative of the Secretary-general for Sudan Ashraf Jehangir Qazi said on Thursday.
"The CPA has reached a critical juncture with little over two years of the interim period remaining," Qazi told the Security Council in an open meeting. "The environment for these final two years is likely to be difficult and complex."
The CPA, signed in January 2005 between the government of Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, ended a long-running north-south civil war in Sudan.
The UN envoy said that the current situation in Sudan was marked by "deepening political uncertainty and insufficient mutual trust among the parties to the CPA," and that the implementation of outstanding CPA issues will test the parties.
Despite the commitment of relevant parties, the ongoing conflict in Darfur and the awaited decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) have "exacerbated" the situation and left the peace agreement in a "vulnerable" position, he noted.
Last July, ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo filed 10 charges against al-Bashir, including three counts of genocide, five of crimes against humanity and two of murder, and called for an arrest warrant.
The world court is reviewing the case before deciding on whether to issue such a warrant, which will clear the way for the first indictment of a sitting head of state. A decision could come as early as this month.
"Should, as a result, the CPA unravel, conflicts and instability in Sudan are likely to escalate dramatically," the envoy warned. "The humanitarian implications of a relapse into conflict and chaos throughout Sudan are, to put it mildly, sobering."
"Without any exaggeration, 2009 could be a make or break year for the CPA and for the prospect of peace in Sudan," he said.