MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q2, 2023 Real GDP Growth 3.2%
Average Real GDP Growth for 2023 3.3%
2023 Projected Real GDP Growth 1.6%
BoG Policy Rate 30.0%
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate 30.27%
Inflation for October, 2023 35.2%
End Period Inflation Target – 2023 31.3%
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – August, 2023 2.1%
2023 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) 4.6%
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Sep, 2023 567.3
Debt to GDP Ratio – Sep, 2023 66.4%
STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exchange closed lower for the week on the back of price decreases by 3 counters. The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) lost 39.30 points (-1.24%) to close the week at 3,130.60 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 28.10%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE-FI) also lost 77.96 points (-3.90%) to close the week at 1,918.99 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) loss of 6.51%.
Market capitalization decreased by 0.58% to close the week at GH¢73,807.06 million, from GH¢74,234.27 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects a YTD gain of 14.42%.
The week recorded a total of 13,769,553 shares valued at GH¢46,292,324.05 changing hands, compared with 53,501,184 shares, valued at GH¢70,267,160.49 in the preceding week.
GCB dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 97.82% and 98.95% of shares traded respectively.
The market ended the week with 2 advancers and 3 decliners as indicated in the table below.
Price Movers for the Week
Equity Opening
Price Closing Price Gain/Loss
(%)
GOIL 1.45 1.50 ?3.45%
BOPP 19.93 20.00 ?0.35%
EGH 7.00 5.70 ?18.57%
GCB 3.50 3.40 ?2.86%
EGL 2.41 2.39 ?0.83%
Source: Ghana Stock Exchange
CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi fell against the USD for the week. It traded at GH¢11.6301/$, compared with GH¢11.6206/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.08% and 26.26% respectively. This compares with a loss of 52.17% a year ago.
The Cedi however appreciated against the GBP for the week. It traded at GH¢14.5917/£, compared with GH¢14.6821/£ at week open, reflecting w/w gain and YTD depreciation of 0.62% and 29.33% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 47.21% a year ago.
The Cedi also gained some grounds against the Euro for the week. It traded at GH¢12.5278/€, compared with GH¢12.6756/€ at week open, reflecting w/w gain and YTD depreciation of 1.18% and 27.00% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 48.37% a year ago.
The Cedi retracted against the Canadian Dollar at week end. It opened at GH¢8.5642/C$ but closed at GH¢8.5723/C$, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.09% and 26.25% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 48.48% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates
Currency Pair Year Open Week Open Week Close Change
% YTD
%
01-01-23 04-12-23 08-12-23
USD/GHS 8.5760 11.6206 11.6301 ?0.08 ?26.26
GBP/GHS 10.3118 14.6821 14.5917 ?0.62 ?29.33
EUR/GHS 9.1457 12.6756 12.5278 ?1.18 ?27.00
CAD/GHS 6.3222 8.5642 8.5723 ?0.09 ?26.25
Source: Bank of Ghana
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢4,126.40 million for the week across the 91-Day, 182-Day and 364-Day Treasury Bills. This compared with GH¢3,917.26 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day Bill settled at 29.58% p.a. from 29.57% p.a. last week whilst the 182-Day Bill settled at 31.97% p.a. from 31.76% p.a. last week. The 364-Day Bill settled at 33.46% p.a. from 33.44% p.a. last week.
The tables below highlight primary market activity at close of the week.
Security Year Open Previous Yield % Current Yield % WoW Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)
01-01-23 04-12-23 08-12-23
91 Day TB 35.36 29.57 29.58 ?0.05 ?16.34
182 Day TB 35.98 31.76 31.97 ?0.65 ?11.15
364 Day TB 35.89 33.44 33.46 ?0.04 ?6.79
Source: Bank of Ghana
The Ghana Market Summary
Current Previous Change
Bid (GH¢' M) 4,126.40 3,917.26 ?5.34%
Issuance (GH¢' M) 4,127.46 3,917.26 ?5.37%
Target (GH¢' M) 3,919 5,618 ?30.24%
Maturity (GH¢' M) 3,247.13 6,200.31 ?47.63%
Target coverage ratio 1.05 0.70 na
Maturity coverage ratio 1.27 0.63 na
Bid / Cover ratio 1.00 1.00 na
Source: Bank of Ghana
COMMODITY MARKET
Oil prices settled lower as fresh demand worries and ongoing oversupply concerns quashed an intraday rebound. Brent futures traded at US$75.84 a barrel, compared to US$78.88 at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 3.85% and 11.72% respectively.
Gold prices fell as strong labour market data saw traders rethink bets that the Federal Reserve will begin trimming interest rates earlier in 2024. Gold settled at US$1,998.30, from US$2,071.00 last week, reflecting w/w loss and YTD appreciation of 3.51% and 9.42% respectively.
The price of Cocoa fell for the week. Cocoa traded at US$4,381.00 per tonne on Friday, from US$4,398.00 last week, reflecting w/w loss and YTD appreciation of 0.39% and 68.50% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities Year Open Week Open Week Close Chg
% YTD
%
01-01-23 04-12-23 08-12-23
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) 85.91 78.88 75.84 ?3.85 ?11.72
Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,826.20 2,071.00 1,998.30 ?3.51 ?9.42
Cocoa (USD/MT) 2,600.00 4,398.00 4,381.00 ?0.39 ?68.50
Source: www.investing.com
BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
One-Third Rule: The one-third rule estimates change in labor productivity based on changes in capital devoted to labor. The rule is used to determine the impact that changes in technology or capital have on production.
Source:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/one-third-rule.asp
ABOUT CIDAN
CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).
RESEARCH TEAM
Name: Ernest Tannor
Email: etannor@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 20 881 8957
Name: Moses Nana Osei-Yeboah
Email: moyeboah@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 24 499 0069
Name: Julian Sapara-Grant
Email: jsgrant@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 20 821 2079
CORPORATE INFORMATION
CIDAN Investments Limited
CIDAN House
House No. 261
Haatso, North Legon – Accra
Tel: +233 (0) 27 690 0011/ 55 989 9935
Fax : +233 (0)30 254 4351
Email : info@cidaninvestments.com
Website : www.cidaninvestments.com
Disclaimer: The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.