Security Analyst Professor Kwesi Aning has downplayed fears that the upcoming by-election in Akwatia will become a flashpoint for political violence, following the recent chaos during the Ablekuma North rerun.

According to Prof. Aning, any political actors seeking revenge or retaliation are unlikely to act so soon after the incident, arguing that such a move would be “strategically wrong.”

Speaking on Citi FM’s Eyewitness News on Monday, July 14, in the aftermath of the Ablekuma North violence, he urged stakeholders to adopt a broader and long-term approach to election security, warning that future acts of violence may be deliberately timed for moments when public and institutional vigilance has diminished.

“I think Akwatia is too early for any reprisals. I think it will be strategically wrong for those who seek to avenge or respond to choose the first opportunity,” Prof. Aning said. “If I have lost the last battle, of course, my opponent will think that the next opportunity is when I might want to strike—and that is bad tactical thinking.”

While calling for adequate security presence at the Akwatia polls, Prof. Aning cautioned against overly concentrating resources in a single area. Instead, he warned that politically motivated groups could bide their time and strike when national attention shifts.

“They will bide their time. They will wait for an opportunity where these acts of violence have been forgotten, there will be less security people around, and then they will strike,” he noted.

He further stressed the need for security agencies to remain vigilant beyond the Akwatia by-election and ensure continuous presence in high-risk areas, with the capacity to preempt and deter potential outbreaks of violence.