The end is near. After the first round of post-split Scottish Premiership fixtures, the clubs fighting for survival have just four games left to secure top-flight status.

It is now a three-way battle. Motherwell made sure of that when they edged out St Mirren on Saturday to effectively seal safety.

That leaves Hamilton Academical, Kilmarnock and Ross County in a desperate scramble. Two points separate basement side Hamilton and 11th-placed Kilmarnock; with a further point between the Rugby Park men and County in 10th.

The relegation battle is poised on the edge of a razor blade. It is fiendishly tough to call who will go down, who will face a play-off and who will survive outright.

So what does history tell us about the scrap to beat the drop? BBC Scotland takes a look.
Bottom of the pile

What hope for the team entering the post-split bearpit bottom of the table?

Going by the numbers, very little indeed.

Last season, called early due to the Covid-19 pandemic, can be discounted here, but in 12 of the previous 15 campaigns, the club that began the post-split programme in last place finished there.

Partick Thistle leapfrogged Ross County from bottom to 11th in 2018 but were sent down by Livingston in the play-off.

Nine years earlier, Falkirk escaped relegation at the expense of Inverness Caledonian Thistle and, in 2005, Livingston overtook Dundee having been at the foot of the standings when the league was cleaved in two.

None of this makes good reading for Hamilton though.
Staying alive

But, then again, aren't Accies the top flight's great survivors? The team relentlessly earmarked for relegation and relentlessly defying the odds?

For six years now, Hamilton have chortled in the face of those predicting their demise and at the expense of clubs with fatter budgets, greater resources and bigger fan bases.

In their first season since winning promotion in 2014, they finished seventh, despite losing talismanic boss Alex Neil and top scorer Tony Andreu mid-campaign. It took Martin Canning 14 games to earn his first win in charge, but come the business end of the campaign, they rallied.

Accies took two points per game post-split, compared with 1.3 before the league's separation. This is a common theme.

Hamilton earned 1.4 post-split points per game in 2015-16, better than their pre-split haul of 1.09.

Before last season was curtailed, they were unbeaten in four matches, winning at Ibrox and at home to Kilmarnock.

Even while in terrible form, and seemingly doomed, when the chips were down, Accies have prevailed.

The Lanarkshire side beat Dundee to avoid automatic relegation in 2017, then saw off Dundee United in the two-legged play-off.

The following season, Hamilton lost nine of the last 10 league games, but a crucial win over Ross County was enough to keep their Premiership status intact.

This time, they need to quickly spark a surge. Despite an improved performance on Saturday against United, the 1-0 home defeat stretched Accies' winless run to seven league games, with just one victory accrued in 13.
The key games

Cast an eye over the four remaining match-days and you are immediately drawn to the last two rounds of fixtures.

County host Hamilton under the Dingwall floodlights on Wednesday 12 May. Both sides have beaten each other away from home this term.

Four days later, Kilmarnock travel to Accies for what could be a relegation-deciding showdown.

A pivotal tussle took place on Saturday, with Kilmarnock and County sharing the points and four goals in a result that thrilled neither but at least nudged them a little clearer of the bottom.
What about the play-off?

The contest between the Premiership's second-bottom side and the Championship contender was introduced in 2013-14, with Hibernian an immediate high-profile casualty at the hands of dauntless Accies.

Since then, only one side has successfully plotted this arduous route to the top tier.

Livingston conquered Partick Thistle in the final to cap a remarkable second straight promotion, having seen off Dundee United in the semi-final.

This year, a raft of teams are jostling behind newly-crowned champions Hearts, with just six points separating second and sixth place.

The odds - and history - are stacked against any winning promotion.