Compared to the 2020/21 season, cocoa supply is anticipated to drop by 5% to 4.955 million tonnes. The current season witnessed a slow start and despite the mild Harmattan, severe dryness is being experienced in the main producing countries of West Africa. Although it is anticipated that the weather will turn around for the better to support the mid-crop, global production for the season under review will still be lower compared to the historic level recorded for the preceding crop year.

Global cocoa demand is projected to increase and register a jump of almost 3% from 4.959 million tonnes during 2020/21 to 5.086 million tonnes for the season under review. Thanks to progress in vaccinations, economies have opened, and this boosted demand for most commodities including cocoa. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain over the long term. COVID-19 remains a concern as for the past years, outbreaks of COVID-19 variants led to restrictions on people’s movements and consequently demand. Indeed, supply chain bottlenecks, inflationary pressures, freight charges amongst others are key unknown factors that could derail the rebound of commodities including cocoa.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates